Occupational and regional employment dynamics and bottlenecks in net-zero transition scenarios

The Institute of Economics will hold a webinar meeting as part of its Seminar Series on Tuesday, April 9, 2024: Maria Del Rio Chanona will present the paper “Occupational and regional employment dynamics and bottlenecks in net-zero transition scenarios".

Abstract:

In this seminar, I will present two studies that explore the labor dynamics associated with transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy. The first study examines the employment shifts in the U.S. electricity sector aiming for 95% decarbonization by 2035. It highlights three phases: a 'scale-up' period with significant job creation, a 'scale-down' phase where many of these jobs are lost, and a long-term steady state. This analysis, based on an input-output model coupled with an occupational mobility network, reveals critical skill mismatches and labor mobility frictions, underscoring the need for strategic planning in rapidly evolving industries.The second study shifts focus to Brazil, examining labor market frictions in different economy-wide transition scenarios. Utilizing an agent-based labor market model, it identifies bottlenecks in labor mobility, in two scenarios. The findings indicate substantial variations in unemployment outcomes and unfilled vacancies, depending on the worker's occupation and region. These studies not only inform  worker supply and demand for a smooth transition but also propose a modeling approach that can inform various aspects of low-carbon transition policies and other major labor market transformations.

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